For every signal we record what actually happened 30, 90 and 180 days later — an offering, a reverse split, a delisting notice, a late filing, a restatement — and publish the hit rates. Only rows with at least 20 evaluated signals are shown; the archive started in 2026-08, so horizons fill in over time and price outcomes arrive with the price feed.
| Signal | Horizon | n | What followed (share of cases) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash < current liabilities | 30d | 683 | offering 24%, reverse_split_or_charter 14%, shelf 9%, listing_notice 7%, late_filing 3%, delisted 2%, restatement 0% |
| Cash < current liabilities | 90d | 145 | offering 47%, late_filing 39%, shelf 29%, listing_notice 23%, reverse_split_or_charter 20%, restatement 2%, delisted 1% |
| Near $5M MVLS floor | 30d | 192 | offering 20%, reverse_split_or_charter 12%, shelf 12%, listing_notice 5%, late_filing 2% |
| Near $5M MVLS floor | 90d | 24 | offering 58%, listing_notice 46%, late_filing 42%, reverse_split_or_charter 42%, shelf 29% |
| Negative equity | 30d | 246 | offering 16%, listing_notice 9%, reverse_split_or_charter 9%, shelf 7%, late_filing 3%, delisted 1%, restatement 0% |
| Negative equity | 90d | 44 | offering 46%, late_filing 43%, listing_notice 32%, reverse_split_or_charter 30%, shelf 25%, restatement 2% |
| Officer/director change | 30d | 33 | offering 15%, shelf 12%, late_filing 6%, reverse_split_or_charter 6%, listing_notice 3% |
| Reverse split | 30d | 26 | offering 35%, reverse_split_or_charter 23%, late_filing 15%, listing_notice 12%, shelf 12% |
| Runway < 6 months | 30d | 1027 | offering 21%, reverse_split_or_charter 11%, shelf 10%, listing_notice 9%, late_filing 3%, delisted 1%, restatement 0% |
| Runway < 6 months | 90d | 204 | offering 52%, late_filing 44%, shelf 30%, listing_notice 27%, reverse_split_or_charter 24%, restatement 2%, delisted 0% |
| Runway < 6 months | 180d | 23 | late_filing 65%, listing_notice 56%, offering 48%, reverse_split_or_charter 44%, restatement 17%, shelf 13% |
| Runway 6–12 months | 30d | 548 | offering 12%, reverse_split_or_charter 6%, listing_notice 5%, shelf 5%, late_filing 1%, delisted 0%, restatement 0% |
| Runway 6–12 months | 90d | 41 | late_filing 29%, listing_notice 27%, offering 27%, reverse_split_or_charter 22%, shelf 20%, delisted 2%, restatement 2% |
| Share count +25% | 30d | 263 | offering 32%, shelf 19%, reverse_split_or_charter 15%, listing_notice 6%, late_filing 1%, restatement 0% |
| Share count +25% | 90d | 35 | offering 71%, shelf 46%, late_filing 34%, listing_notice 29%, reverse_split_or_charter 29%, delisted 3%, restatement 3% |
| Shelf filed | 30d | 23 | offering 30%, late_filing 9%, shelf 4% |
These are conditional frequencies, not predictions, and they feed back into the importance priors as the sample grows (calibration plan).