For every signal we record what actually happened 30, 90 and 180 days later — an offering, a reverse split, a delisting notice, a late filing, a restatement — and publish the hit rates. Only rows with at least 20 evaluated signals are shown; the archive started in 2026-09, so horizons fill in over time and price outcomes arrive with the price feed.
| Signal | Horizon | n | What followed (share of cases) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New 13D filer | 30d | 40 | offering 20%, shelf 20%, late_filing 12%, listing_notice 8%, reverse_split_or_charter 8% |
| 13D amendment | 30d | 146 | reverse_split_or_charter 16%, offering 14%, shelf 6%, listing_notice 3%, delisted 3%, late_filing 3% |
| Material agreement terminated | 30d | 41 | offering 20%, late_filing 10%, listing_notice 7%, reverse_split_or_charter 7%, shelf 7%, delisted 5% |
| ATM program | 30d | 297 | offering 24%, shelf 18%, reverse_split_or_charter 8%, late_filing 6%, listing_notice 6%, restatement 1%, delisted 0% |
| Cash < current liabilities | 30d | 684 | offering 24%, reverse_split_or_charter 14%, shelf 9%, listing_notice 7%, late_filing 3%, delisted 2%, restatement 0% |
| Cash < current liabilities | 90d | 158 | offering 48%, late_filing 36%, shelf 32%, listing_notice 25%, reverse_split_or_charter 20%, restatement 2%, delisted 1% |
| Convertible note | 30d | 69 | offering 36%, shelf 25%, reverse_split_or_charter 17%, late_filing 14%, listing_notice 12% |
| Delisting language | 30d | 206 | offering 22%, shelf 19%, listing_notice 15%, late_filing 13%, reverse_split_or_charter 13%, delisted 3%, restatement 1%, bankruptcy 0% |
| Departure cluster | 30d | 38 | listing_notice 8%, late_filing 5%, reverse_split_or_charter 5%, shelf 5%, offering 3% |
| Equity deficiency | 30d | 28 | listing_notice 29%, offering 29%, shelf 18%, late_filing 14%, reverse_split_or_charter 14%, delisted 4%, restatement 4% |
| Equity line | 30d | 83 | shelf 37%, offering 30%, reverse_split_or_charter 24%, late_filing 12%, listing_notice 11%, delisted 1%, restatement 1% |
| New debt obligation | 30d | 104 | offering 25%, reverse_split_or_charter 12%, shelf 10%, late_filing 7%, listing_notice 5% |
| Going-concern language | 30d | 499 | offering 19%, listing_notice 10%, shelf 9%, reverse_split_or_charter 9%, delisted 1%, late_filing 1%, restatement 0%, bankruptcy 0% |
| Going concern in 8-K | 30d | 48 | offering 40%, shelf 29%, late_filing 10%, listing_notice 10%, delisted 2%, reverse_split_or_charter 2% |
| Hearings panel | 30d | 57 | listing_notice 21%, offering 14%, shelf 12%, reverse_split_or_charter 9%, late_filing 7%, delisted 5% |
| Form 4 burst | 30d | 276 | offering 6%, shelf 4%, reverse_split_or_charter 4%, listing_notice 2%, delisted 2%, late_filing 1% |
| Insider open-market buy | 30d | 41 | late_filing 12%, listing_notice 10%, reverse_split_or_charter 10%, offering 7% |
| Insider buying cluster | 30d | 38 | late_filing 21%, offering 21%, listing_notice 13%, reverse_split_or_charter 10%, shelf 10%, restatement 3% |
| Insider selling before raise | 30d | 25 | offering 56%, late_filing 16%, listing_notice 12%, reverse_split_or_charter 12%, shelf 12% |
| Insider selling cluster | 30d | 53 | offering 15%, late_filing 2%, listing_notice 2%, reverse_split_or_charter 2%, shelf 2% |
| Late filing (NT) | 30d | 67 | listing_notice 28%, offering 21%, reverse_split_or_charter 12%, shelf 9%, delisted 3%, restatement 2% |
| Exchange deficiency notice | 30d | 110 | offering 16%, listing_notice 14%, shelf 12%, late_filing 9%, delisted 7%, reverse_split_or_charter 4%, bankruptcy 1%, restatement 1% |
| Minimum bid deficiency | 30d | 106 | offering 20%, listing_notice 18%, reverse_split_or_charter 17%, late_filing 11%, shelf 11%, delisted 3%, restatement 1% |
| MVLS deficiency | 30d | 35 | listing_notice 29%, offering 26%, shelf 17%, late_filing 14%, restatement 3%, reverse_split_or_charter 3% |
| Near $5M MVLS floor | 30d | 595 | offering 11%, listing_notice 8%, shelf 7%, reverse_split_or_charter 6%, late_filing 1%, delisted 1% |
| Near $5M MVLS floor | 90d | 30 | offering 57%, listing_notice 40%, reverse_split_or_charter 37%, late_filing 33%, shelf 27% |
| Negative equity | 30d | 322 | offering 16%, listing_notice 11%, reverse_split_or_charter 10%, shelf 6%, late_filing 3%, delisted 1%, restatement 0% |
| Negative equity | 90d | 48 | offering 42%, late_filing 40%, listing_notice 31%, reverse_split_or_charter 27%, shelf 23%, restatement 2% |
| Restatement (non-reliance) | 30d | 24 | offering 12%, late_filing 8%, listing_notice 4%, restatement 4%, reverse_split_or_charter 4%, shelf 4% |
| Officer/director change | 30d | 329 | offering 10%, shelf 7%, reverse_split_or_charter 7%, late_filing 4%, listing_notice 4%, delisted 2%, restatement 0% |
| PIPE | 30d | 130 | offering 35%, shelf 29%, reverse_split_or_charter 15%, listing_notice 14%, late_filing 11%, restatement 1% |
| Registered direct | 30d | 55 | shelf 24%, offering 22%, reverse_split_or_charter 7%, late_filing 6%, listing_notice 4%, delisted 2% |
| Reverse split | 30d | 411 | offering 26%, shelf 19%, listing_notice 16%, reverse_split_or_charter 14%, late_filing 12%, delisted 1%, restatement 1% |
| Holder rights modified | 30d | 64 | listing_notice 23%, offering 20%, late_filing 19%, reverse_split_or_charter 12%, shelf 8%, delisted 5% |
| Runway < 6 months | 30d | 1028 | offering 22%, reverse_split_or_charter 11%, shelf 10%, listing_notice 9%, late_filing 3%, delisted 1%, restatement 0% |
| Runway < 6 months | 90d | 223 | offering 51%, late_filing 40%, shelf 31%, listing_notice 28%, reverse_split_or_charter 24%, restatement 2%, delisted 0% |
| Runway < 6 months | 180d | 23 | late_filing 65%, listing_notice 56%, offering 48%, reverse_split_or_charter 44%, restatement 17%, shelf 13% |
| Runway 6–12 months | 30d | 548 | offering 12%, reverse_split_or_charter 6%, listing_notice 5%, shelf 5%, late_filing 1%, delisted 0%, restatement 0% |
| Runway 6–12 months | 90d | 42 | late_filing 29%, listing_notice 29%, offering 26%, reverse_split_or_charter 24%, shelf 19%, delisted 2%, restatement 2% |
| Share count +25% | 30d | 291 | offering 30%, shelf 19%, reverse_split_or_charter 14%, listing_notice 8%, late_filing 1%, restatement 0% |
| Share count +25% | 90d | 36 | offering 72%, shelf 44%, late_filing 33%, listing_notice 28%, reverse_split_or_charter 28%, delisted 3%, restatement 3% |
| Shelf effective | 30d | 116 | offering 28%, late_filing 10%, listing_notice 8%, reverse_split_or_charter 8%, shelf 8%, delisted 3% |
| Shelf filed | 30d | 147 | offering 27%, late_filing 12%, listing_notice 6%, reverse_split_or_charter 6%, shelf 5%, delisted 1% |
| Offering (424B) | 30d | 254 | offering 38%, reverse_split_or_charter 18%, late_filing 11%, shelf 9%, listing_notice 5% |
| 10% holder buying | 30d | 38 | late_filing 24%, reverse_split_or_charter 18%, listing_notice 16%, offering 16%, restatement 3%, shelf 3% |
| Unregistered sale | 30d | 182 | offering 42%, shelf 26%, reverse_split_or_charter 18%, late_filing 14%, listing_notice 10%, restatement 0% |
These are conditional frequencies, not predictions, and they feed back into the importance priors as the sample grows (calibration plan).