The filings point to a discounted equity raise ahead — dilution for existing holders. Next thing to watch: a 424B or offering 8-K.
Radar 97 (high attention) · dilution pressure high · listing risk high · governance risk low · runway 1.9 mo · strongest signal: Exchange deficiency notice (Jul 24, 2026)
What would confirm: 424B5/8-K announcing an offering, ATM sales disclosed in next 10-Q, or Form 4 sales by insiders ahead of it.
What would prove it wrong: Non-dilutive cash event (asset sale, grant, milestone payment), OCF turning positive, or shelf withdrawn (RW).
Direction is stated for existing shareholders (▼ more shares / survival or listing risk; ▲ insiders or holders buying). It is a characterization of the filings, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Independent filings stitched into a thesis, each with what would confirm and what would prove it wrong.
The filings point to a discounted equity raise ahead — dilution for existing holders. Next thing to watch: a 424B or offering 8-K. Cash need (going-concern language, negative equity, runway < 6 months) coexists with live selling machinery (atm program, equity line, pipe, shelf effective, shelf filed). Base case is a discounted raise; the question is when, not if.
Listing is at risk and the usual cures are constrained. Next thing to watch: a reverse-split proxy, a hearings-panel 8-K, or a Form 25. Exchange deficiency plus a structural reason cure is hard (sub-$5M float, negative equity, no cash, or a reverse split already used). Under Nasdaq's 2026 rules (one reverse split per 12 months; $5M MVLS floor with no cure period from Sept 2026) the usual escape hatches are narrower.
Variable-priced paper is outstanding while the listing is under stress — the structure where dilution can accelerate. Watch the share count each quarter. Discount-priced or variable-priced securities are outstanding while the company is managing its listing with reverse splits/notices. Each conversion lowers the price, which lowers the next conversion price.
VivoSim Labs received a Nasdaq notice on July 24, 2026, stating it failed to maintain the $2.5 million minimum stockholders' equity requirement under Listing Rule 5550(b)(1), based on its March 31, 2026 fiscal year-end equity deficit of $(1.1) million. The company must submit a compliance plan by September 3, 2026, and may receive up to 180 days (until January 16, 2027) to cure. Despite closing a $4 million PIPE on July 17, 2026, and receiving a $5 million milestone payment from Eli Lilly in July 2026 (both post-balance-sheet events), the June 30, 2026 balance sheet still showed negative equity of $(2.3) million and cash of $1.67 million against a $10.8 million annual burn rate.
Runway = liquidity ÷ monthly operating burn at the latest reported period · balance sheet 47 days old. A financing after the balance-sheet date is the main reason a figure can be stale — check the timeline below for offerings since then.
Last 30 days of filing signals plus current balance-sheet flags, newest first. ▼ pressure · ▲ support · hover a score for its components; every row links to the filing.
| Date | Signal | Evidence | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | ▼ Going-concern language | “going concern periodic” language in 10-Q (10-Q) filed 2026-08-12 filing | 33 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | ▼ Reverse split | “reverse split” language in PRE 14A (PRE 14A) filed 2026-08-10 filing | 27 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | ▼ Shelf effective | EFFECT notice 2026-08-10 filing | 21 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | ▼ Shelf filed | S-1 filed 2026-07-31 filing | 32 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | ▼ Exchange deficiency notice | 8-K Item 3.01 filed 2026-07-24 (accepted 16:07 ET) filing | 65 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | ▼ MVLS deficiency | “mvls deficiency” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-07-24 filing | 63 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | ▼ Hearings panel | “hearings panel” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-07-24 filing | 59 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | ▼ Equity deficiency | “stockholders equity deficiency” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-07-24 filing | 52 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | ▼ Delisting language | “delisting notice” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-07-24 filing | 46 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | ▼ PIPE | “pipe” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-07-24 filing | 33 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | ▼ Equity line | “equity line” language in 8-K (EX-10.1) filed 2026-07-17 filing | 51 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | ▼ ATM program | “atm” language in 8-K (EX-99.1) filed 2026-07-17 filing | 41 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | ▼ Unregistered sale | 8-K Item 3.02 filed 2026-07-17 (accepted 08:45 ET) filing | 41 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | ▼ PIPE | “pipe” language in 8-K (8-K) filed 2026-07-17 filing | 33 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | ▼ Runway < 6 months | ~1.9 months runway: liquidity $1,670,000 as of 2026-06-30, burn $10,827,000/yr (latest fiscal-year operating cash flow (quarter too short to annualize) [companyfacts]) filing | 46 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | ▼ Share count +25% | Shares outstanding 3,494,071 (2026-07-10) -> 14,850,612 (2026-08-10), +325% filing | 45 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | ▼ Negative equity | Stockholders' equity $-2,346,000 as of 2026-06-30 filing | 31 |
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